I’ll admit to having followed Guantanamo only casually and intermittently. It’s been my semi-informed impression however, that most who were clearly non-combatants and/or benign (i.e., the folks whose home countries would take back without much urging) have been released already. (Why would they not be?) I recall hearing somewhere that the numbers had already been cut down by a factor or three — somewhere around that order of magnitude.

Which, would leave, by definition, a core of hardened combatants and the not-so-benign — those whom no sane country would want in their midst. (Key number to keep in mind is an average of one serious attack on guards per day by the ~300 inmates there.) It would make absolutely no sense to release them domestically… unless one of your top policy objectives was to get cozy with and try to become more like the naive Eloi European ‘allies’ who’ve never seen a Morlock terrorist they couldn’t accommodate. The WSJ carried this item yesterday:

European justice ministers met with [Attorney General Eric] Holder earlier this week and pressed for details on how many Guantanamo prisoners the U.S. planned to release domestically, as part of any agreement for allies to accept detainees. Mr. Holder said U.S. officials would work to respond to the questions European officials have over U.S. Guantanamo plans. For “people who can be released there are a variety of options that we have and among them is the possibility is that we would release them into this country,” Mr. Holder said.

I won’t even bother talking about crazy this is. Whether you’re coming at this from a hard-right or bleeding-heart perspective, the dangers should be patently obvious.

On the one hand, if soon-to-be-former detainees go into a kind of witness protection program (e.g., so as not to be savaged by vigilante justice within hours of their release), watch for universal outrage at (among other things) how much that would cost and why it is justified. Not to mention untraceable, passive efforts from inside the agency to subvert the effectiveness of ex-detainees ‘protection’.

The danger here is that government isn’t likely to supply the will or the resources to watch someone who still thinks of himself as on a mission from god to destroy the infidels. Net/net for a determined ex-detainee under this scenario is that they just had an eight-year taxpayer-funded rest and unparalleled networking opportunities to help them prepare for the next round of jihad, plus a free ride to the country they were trying to attack in the first place.

Another scenario goes in the opposite direction but ends up in the same place. In this one, the debate takes on the character of NIMBY hazardous waste siting. The public demands that released Gitmo detainees be identified in a manner similar to how pedophiles are in most communities nowadays. I’m not saying that’s necessarily a good thing, but watch for this possibility. If I were an ex-detainee, and the alternative were being turned over to live in some socialist European paradise with a thriving sharia-law Muslim ghetto, I’d take that hero’s parade in a second. Better than the living hell of having your lawn picketed 24/7.

The danger here is more subtle but ultimately, probably more dangerous. What would happen as a result of dozens of populist suburban de facto detentions like? A liberal media circus and presidential bully pulpit opportunity centered on calls for ‘tolerance’. The net result would be an increased public perception that the ex-detainees were the victims (partly true) and by extension, that all muslims are moderate and that it is the U.S. and Western Civilization in general that are the evil oppressors.

Either scenario provides potentially explosive mix that only furthers jihadist aims.

A third scenario — that these guys all settle down, convert to Christianity, get a boring job, a mortgage and a picket fence, trim their lawn diligently, marry some nice girl from Baylor, have kids, buy a minivan and a dog, join the Lions Club and bring a covered dish to the church supper once a week is one devoutly to be wished.

I’m not counting on it.